“Since the general civilization of mankind, I believe there are more instances of the abridgment of the freedom of the people by gradual and silent encroachments of those in power than by violent and sudden usurpation” -James Madison

Thursday, May 01, 2008

My 2008 National Election Prediction

1. The Dems will have a very difficult time this summer in Denver. Even the superdelegates are going to be bitterly divided, and it will take a minimum of 30 votes to settle.
2. When the dust clears, the Dems will have decided that their fear of losing the black vote trumps their fear of Clinton retaliation. As a party they're nearly as sick of the Clintons as we are, and this is the chance to dump them for good.
3. Obama will indeed be the historic First Black Nominee. Whee.
4. The Rev. Wright debacle, combined with Obama's complete lack of presidentiality, will result in few white votes. These missing Dems probably won't vote for McCain; they'll just stay home. Blacks alone won't put him in the White House, and youth never vote as much as they talk.
5. Obama wasn't able to win primary victories in the top 10 electoral states, most of which are reliably blue. He will be lucky to win them in the general, and likely will not.
6. The general election will resemble the landslides of the 80s.....McCain will take 42 states at a minimum.
7. Congressional races will continue to show Dem gains. The Senate will still be just shy of 60, but with the RINOs helping, they will be a major force to be reckoned with. The House will remain solidly blue as well.

Here is the REAL problem with the upcoming election: The McCain landslide will be falsely attributed to a mandate for "moderates" and the further erosion of nationalism and capitalism vis a vis National Healthcare, Global Warming regulations, increased taxation, and continued tolerance of illegal immigration.

McCain WILL be president, with a strongly blue congress and a shiny new "mandate". Sadly, he'll work with them and continue to further the goals (with few exceptions) that an otherwise sensible Dem would have. We will, however, have escaped the abyss into which Clinton or Obama would have pushed us.

It is a time for conservatives to realize that we are back in the wilderness, even if "our" guy wins in November. Hopefully he will do little harm and not set the movement back too far for too long.

Predictions of victory have never seemed so depressing.


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